Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns
Primary Research Stream
Infectious Diseases
Full Project Title
Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns.
Project Period
March 2007 – December 2008
Rationale / Background
International travel of people has a profound effect on the patterns of infectious diseases globally. Travellers import diseases into places and populations visited and to their country of origin upon their return.
For infectious diseases, experimenting in communities is rarely ethical or possible. Instead, we rely on mathematical modelling as a tool to forecast disease transmission dynamics and help plan rational disease control strategies. Modelling relies on social contact and behavioural data, but the available data are outdated and not relevant to modern society. Our study will collect relevant, current data on social and behavioural patterns of entrants into Australia, in order to inform mathematical models for emerging infections. Such a dataset would be unique. The island nature of Australia means that Australia’s quarantine policies and opportunities for disease control are unique. This project would help Australia’s preparedness for the importation of new and emerging infections.
Aim and Objectives
To collect detailed, unique data on behavioural and social patterns of people entering and departing Australia, and use these data to develop mathematical models for effective border control measures for emerging infections in Australia. To our knowledge, no data of this nature exist currently, in Australia or elsewhere. Sub-aims are:
- To develop a novel data set that is useful for modelling a range of diseases and scenarios and that reflects the movements and contacts within Australia of persons entering Australia.
- To use the data to model different disease scenarios that pose a threat to Australia, including the testing of current disease response plans. Specifically, we will provide estimates of the impact of proposed measures to control SARS, influenza and smallpox based on both disease parameters and human behaviour and contact patterns..
Method and Study Design
We will collect detailed data about passengers departing Australia, both Australians and visitors through a survey at Sydney International Airport and of passengers departing from Khon Kaen and Bangkok Airports in Thailand for Australia. Data collection will be performed in two stages in order to get the best information about contact patterns between people at a time when they are least likely to have forgotten the details. This study of departing travellers will be used to identify travellers and obtain detailed information on the behaviour and contacts of visitors to Australia in the two weeks preceding their arrival and the two weeks preceding their departure from Australia.
A second data collection of Australian’s will be undertaken using computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and will collect demographic data on a random sample of Australian adults and detailed data on persons who have travelled internationally in the past 12 months in order to identify travellers and the frequency of travel.
The modelling will be undertaken using disease-specific scenarios, incorporating both our collected data, other data sources and known disease parameters. Our modelling will include testing the model using known importations of measles and then using the models to examine scenarios for pandemic influenza and smallpox. The dataset will also be available for other modelling challenges (eg pneumonic plague, or a new respiratory virus).
Key Findings (to Date)
Publications and Resources
AE Heywood, R Watkins and CR MacIntyre. Preliminary results of an airport survey of travellers: Travel Patterns and Infectious Disease Risks. Asia Pacific International Conference on Travel Medicine. Our Region in Focus. 25-27 February 2008. Melbourne, Australia.
AE Heywood, R Watkins, K Nilvarangkul, S Iamsirithawan and CR MacIntyre. Health Behaviour and Infectious Disease Risk in Travellers Departing Australia. 13th International Congress on Infectious Disease. 19-22 June 2008. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Pattanasin S, Heywood A, Iamsirithaworn S, Buathong R, Yang H, Watkins R and MacIntyre CR. High rate of recent infections in international travelers departing Bangkok. 13th International Congress on Infectious Disease. 19-22 June 2008. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia