NHMRC Capacity Building Grant in Population Health – mathematical modeling of infectious diseases

Primary Research Stream

Infectious Diseases

Full Project Title

NHMRC Capacity Building Grant in Population Health – mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Project Period

2005 - 2009

Rationale / Background

Mathematical modeling is a key science to inform policy and practice in the control of infectious diseases, particularly for questions which cannot be answered by planned experiments or trials. Examples are assessing the impact of interventions in controlling a pandemic of influenza. in Population Health – mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Aim and Objectives

To develop national capacity in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Method and Study Design

The formation of a national network of infectious modelers who are working on 20 research projects across three major theme areas.

Key Findings (to Date)

All TIs have been appointed, and NIDMA has been established including an electronic listserver. We have created a network of talented modellers across Australia, and have successfully identified and linked disparate modelling groups and individuals in Australia and New Zealand.

We have begun intensive training efforts by holding three workshops successfully in our first year, and two in our second year, featuring international speakers. The first steering group meeting was held in 2006. We have made Commonwealth and State health departments aware of the modelling expertise within our group and been able to bridge the gap between research and policy. The group made a major contribution to the Australian Pandemic Flu plan through modelling, in the way of the report produced for the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing “Using mathematical models to assess responses to an outbreak of an emerged viral respiratory disease.” TIs also presented their work to the National Influenza Pandemic Action Committee in 2006 and engaged in debate and discussion over pandemic policy discussions based on their research.

We have also attracting additional funding to the group in terms of NHMRC research fellowships (Dr Jodie McVernon), PhD scholarship funding (for NCIRS through CIDM-Public Health infrastructure grant), tendered projects (pandemic flu modelling for government, led by Prof Niels Becker) and grants (urgent influenza grants).

The group has made over a dozen conference presentations, already has produced 41 publications from the projects and has several papers submitted and in press. We have also begun building up the modelling groups at each centre with additional students and staff through other funding sources.

Publications and Resources

1. Friedman ND, Bull AL, Russo PL, Leder K, Reid C, Billah B, Marasco S, McBryde ES, Richards MJ. An Alternative Scoring System to Predict Risk for Surgical Site Infection Complicating Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery, Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology accepted Mar 2007.

2. Eisen DP, Cheng , McBryde ES Mannose-binding lectin deficiency cut-off and acute phase profile, Surgical Infections. 2007 Feb; 8 (1):121-2.

3. McBryde ES, Pettitt AN, Cooper BS, McElwain DLS Characterising an Outbreak of Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci using Hidden Markov Models, Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2007 Aug 22; 4 (15):745-54.
4. McBryde ES, Pettitt AN, McElwain DLS, A stochastic mathematical model of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission in an Intensive Care Unit: Predicting the impact of interventions, Journal of Theoretical Biology. Nov 17; [Epub ahead of print].

5. McBryde ES, McElwain DLS, A mathematical model investigating the impact of an environmental reservoir on prevalence and control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci, Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2006, 193(10) 1473-1474.

6. McBryde ES, Gibson G, Pettitt AN, Zhang Y, Zhao B, McElwain DLS, Bayesian modelling of an epidemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 2006. 68(4) 889 – 917. DOI: 10.1007/s11538-005-9005-4.

7. McCaw, J and McVernon, J. Prophylaxis or treatment: Optimal use of an antiviral stockpile during an influenza pandemic. Mathematical Biosciences, 2007 Mar 12 [Epub ahead of print]

8. McVernon J, McCaw CT, Mathews J. Model Answers or Trivial Pursuits? The Role of Mathematical Models in Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Planning. Accepted for publication in Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 12th February 2007

9. McCaw JM, McVernon J, McCaw CT, Mathews JD. Modelling the biology and transmission of influenza virus - learning from 1918-19 and other outbreaks. Solicited review for Victorian Infectious Diseases Bulletin, for publication March 2007.

10. Southern J, McVernon J, Gelb D, Andrews N, Morris R, Crowley-Luke A, Goldblatt D, Miller E. Immunogenicity of a fourth dose of Hib conjugate vaccine and antibody persistence in UK children aged 6 months to 4 years, primed with acellular or whole cell pertussis containing Hib-combinations in infancy. Clin Vacc Immunol accepted July 2007

11. McVernon J, Andrews N, Slack M, Moxon R, Ramsay M. Host and environmental factors associated with Hib in England, 1998-2002. Arch Dis Child accepted June 2007

12. McVernon J, Ramsay ME, McLean AR. Understanding the impact of Hib conjugate vaccine on transmission, immunity and disease in the United Kingdom. Epidemiol Infect 2007 Aug 3; 1-13 [Epub ahead of print]

13. McVernon J, McCaw CT, Mathews J. Model Answers or Trivial Pursuits? The Role of Mathematical Models in Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Planning. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 2007; 1: 43-54.

14. Riddell A, Buttery JP, McVernon J, Chantler T, Lane L, Bowen-Morris J, Diggle L, Morris R, Lockhart S, Pollard AJ, Cartwright K, Moxon ER. A randomized study comparing the safety and immunogenicity of a conjugate vaccine combination containing meningococcal group C and pneumococcal capsular polysaccharide--CRM197 with a meningococcal group C conjugate vaccine in healthy infants: challenge phase. Vaccine. 2007 May 10;25(19):3906-12. Epub 2007 Feb 7

15. McCaw JM, McVernon J, McCaw CT, Mathews JD. Modelling the biology and transmission of influenza virus - learning from 1918-19 and other outbreaks. Solicited review for Victorian Infectious Diseases Bulletin, for publication March 2007.

16. Caley P, Becker NG, Philp DJ (2007). The waiting time for inter-country spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS One, 2007 Jan 3:2:e143, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000143.

17. Caley, P., Philp, D.P. and McCracken, K. (submitted March 2007). Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface.

18. Barnes B, Glass K, Becker NG (2007). The role of health care workers and antiviral drugs in the control of pandemic influenza. Mathematical Biosciences. In press (accepted 23 February 2007)

19. Newall AT, Beutels P, Wood J, Edmunds WJ, MacIntyre CR. What the papers say: a review of cost-effectiveness analyses of human papillomavirus vaccination. Lancet Infectious Diseases. In Press, 2007. (Accepted January 16th 2007).

20. Gidding HF, Wood, J, MacIntyre CR, Kelly, H, Lambert SB, Gilbert GL, McIntyre PB. Sustained measles elimination in Australia and priorities for long term maintenance. Vaccine. In Press (Accepted January 2007)

21. Watkins RE, Eagleson S, Beckett S, Garner G, Veenendaal B, Wright G, Plant AJ. Using GIS to create synthetic disease outbreaks. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2007 Feb 14;7(1):4

22. B. Barnes and N. G. Becker, “The impact of dispersion in the number of secondary infections on the probability of an epidemic”, requested for the Applied Probability Volume, Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, Submitted 2007.

23. G. Farquhar, L. Cernusak and B. Barnes, “Heavy water fractionation during transpiration”, Plant Physiology, 2007, 143, 11-18.

24. K. Glass and B. Barnes, “How much would closing schools reduce transmission of infection during an influenza pandemic?” Epidemiology, 2007, 18(2).

25. B. Barnes, H. Sidhu and D. Gordon, “Host gatro-intestinal dynamics and the frequency of antimicrobial production by Escherichia coli”, Microbiology, (In press).

26. B. Barnes, K. Mokany and M. Roderick, “Allocation within an ecological framework linking scales based on self-thinning”, Ecological Modelling, 2007, 201(2), 223-232.

27. B. Barnes, H. Bi and M. Roderick, “Application of an ecological framework linking scales based on self-thinning”, Ecological Applications, 2006, 16(1), 133-142.

28. B. Barnes, H. Sidhu and S. Roxburgh, “A model integrating patch dynamics, competing species and the intermediate disturbance hypothesis”, Ecological Modelling, 2006, 194(4), 414-420.

29. Hocking JS, Walker J, Regan DG, Chen M, Fairley CK. Chlamydia screening- Australia should strive to achieve what others have not. Medical Journal of Australia. 2007;in press.

30. Kulasingam S, Connelly L, Conway E, Hocking JS, Myers E, Regan DG, et al. A cost-effectiveness analysis of adding a human papillomavirus vaccine to the Australian National Cervical Screening Program. Sexual Health. 2007;4:165-75.

31. Regan DG, Philp DJ, Hocking JS, Law MG. Modelling the population-level impact of vaccination on the transmission of human papillomavirus type 16 in Australia. Sexual Health. 2007;4:147-63.

32. Regan DG, Wilson DP. Modelling sexually transmitted infections: less is usually more for informing public health policy. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2007;in press.

33. Razali K, BA, Thein HH, Bell J, Cooper-Stanbury M, Dolan K, Dore G, Law M, et al. Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia. Drug and Alcohol Dependence. 2007; in press.

34. Dailey L, Watkins RE, Riley T, Plant AJ. The potential of pre-diagnostic data sources for influenza surveillance. Australian Infection Control, 2007: 12(1): 9-12.

35. Dailey L, Watkins RE, Riley T, Plant AJ. Timeliness of data sources used for influenza surveillance. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 2007; in press.

36. Watkins RE, Cooke FC, Donovan RJ, Macintyre CR, Itzwerth R, Plant AJ. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia. BMC Public Health. 2007 Jul 17;7(1):157

37. Gidding HF, Warlow M, Backhouse J, Macintyre CR, Gilbert GL, McIntyre PB. The impact of a new universal infant and school-based adolescent hepatitis B vaccination program in Australia. Vaccine, In press 2007.


38. Gidding HF, Wood J, Macintyre CR, Kelly H, Lambert SB, Gilbert GL, McIntyre PB. Sustained measles elimination in Australia and priorities for long term maintenance. Vaccine. 2007 4;25(18):3574-80.
39. Newall AT, Beutels P, Wood J, Edmunds WJ, MacIntyre CR. What the papers say: a review of cost-effectiveness analyses of human papillomavirus vaccination. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2007 Apr;7(4):289-96.
40. Wood JG, Zamani N, MacIntyre CR, Becker NG. Effects of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2007;13:1038-1045.

41. USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS TO ASSESS RESPONSES TO AN OUTBREAK OF AN EMERGED VIRAL RESPIRATORY DISEASE. A Report to the Department of Health and Ageing by Niels G. Becker, Kathryn Glass, Belinda Barnes, Peter Caley, David Philp, James McCaw, Jodie McVernon, James Wood.